Challenge Overview
Two seismic forces are reshaping the global order at the same time.
The rise of Modern Mercantilism is redrawing the rules of trade, policy, and power. Artificial Intelligence is rewriting what economies, governments, and people can do. These forces aren't arriving in sequence. They're colliding right now, amplifying each other in ways the world has never navigated before.
Bridgewater Associates and Global Citizen believe the best ideas can come from anyone, anywhere. For the second year, we're inviting you to predict what this radically different world will look like.
Who wins? Who loses? Do you know?
Submit your analysis for a chance to win $25K and a potential career or internship opportunity at Bridgewater.
Challenge Details
The Bridgewater and Global Citizen “Forecasting the Future” Challenge invites you into this complex world, focusing on a key issue for today’s leaders: how does Modern Mercantilism—governments actively reshaping trade, industrial policy, and national power—collide with AI, which will touch every corner of the macroeconomy? What does that collision produce?
For 50 years, Bridgewater has studied the cause-and-effect forces that shape economies and markets—turning that understanding into timeless and universal investment principles, systematized and stress tested against every market cycle in history. Today, we are building AI systems designed to do the same—to find signals in complexity, stress test assumptions, and push the boundaries of what is knowable.
We believe the world moves for logical reasons. Reasons that can be studied, understood, and predicted.
We're not looking for the loudest take or the safest one. We're looking for the most well-reasoned forecasts that hold up because the logic underneath them does.
Now we want your sharpest thinking.
Total submissions should aim for 10 pages or less. This isn't a hard limit—we love great, differentiated analysis—but our reviewers may stop reading after page 10. Unless it's earth-shatteringly awesome.
Part 1: Your Forecasts
10+ binary forecasts. One sentence for each. Probabilities that match outcomes
- What to Submit: Create a minimum of 10 binary (yes/no) forecasts, each with an assigned probability and clear, objective resolution criteria.
- Time Frames: Cover short- and medium-term time frames (1-5 years).
- Focus: All forecasts must relate to Modern Mercantilism, AI, or their intersection.
- Calibration: Calibration matters—your probabilities should reflect genuine conviction, not hedging.
Part 2: Your Framework and Holistic Synthesis
Your big-picture view of how AI and Modern Mercantilism shape the next decade. Max 3 pages.
- Framework: Present a coherent framework that ties your forecasts together into a broader view of how these two forces will reshape the world.
- Explain: Explain the key cause-and-effect dynamics you believe will drive global events.
- Reference Forecasts: Reference your most impactful forecasts from Part 1 to anchor your thinking.
- Visual Support: Charts and data are welcome.
- Focus: This is about synthesis—not justifying each forecast individually.
Part 3: Analytical Appendix
Reasoning, evidence, and analysis behind your forecast. ~5 pages.
- Use It Your Way: This section is yours to use as you see fit—explain the reasoning behind your forecasts, share supporting models, or go deeper on the analysis that matters most.
- Length: We recommend 5 pages or less.
